[1.1.3] The latest trends (2025)

[1.1.3] The latest trends (2025)

An ever changing world.

The world is changing, fast

The world is changing. Accelerating. At exponential speed. Unprecedented times.
We hear these phrases all the time. Phrases that are intended to get us into an 'open to change' state. Because that’s what leaders do, enact change.
This was first described by Warren Bennis in 1987 as a VUCA world (yes, the concept is already that old). A world that is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous.
  • Volatile [V]: Refers to rapid and unpredictable changes in the environment. Situations can shift quickly and dramatically without clear patterns.
  • Uncertain [U]: Describes the lack of predictability and the difficulty in understanding what's coming next. Past experiences may not help predict future outcomes.
  • Complex [C]: Refers to the many interconnected parts and variables that affect organizations and decisions. Multiple factors influence outcomes in ways that are hard to analyze.
  • Ambiguous [A]: Represents the lack of clarity about how to interpret events or what they mean. Situations can be understood in different ways, making it difficult to reach clear conclusions.
Warren wanted leaders to think ahead, about the current and future problems of the world, the complexities of our businesses, and how to provide direction to our teams.
And the VUCA changes are numerous, to name a few; (de-)globalization, Internet, digitization, global warming, COVID-19, remote-work, Crypto-currencies, Cloud Technologies Artificial Intelligence. This list has grown over the last 5 years (when first writing it) and we can expect it to grow.
Bob Johansen countered each of the four VUCA challenges with a leadership a requirement, things leaders can do to address the VUCA world. According to Bob, leaders have to provide Vision [V], Understanding [A], Clarity [C], and Adaptability [A].
  • Vision [V]: when conditions are changing unpredictably (volatile), leaders should keep focused on the desired target state and vision.
  • Understanding [U]: when there is a lot of uncertainty explore and experiment in order to increase understanding of external political, economic, social, technological, legislative and environmental (PESTLE) factors).
  • Clarity [C]: in situations with a lot of unknowns and unpredictable conditions (complexity) that can only be understood in hindsight or retrospect learn to simplify where possible as clarity informs decisions and decisions enable execution.
  • Agility [A]: When you foresee a future with multiple significantly different possibilities (ambiguity) and outcomes, be ready to adapt the approach to match the desired outcome
In short, this relates to the leader’s role as ‘Sensemaker’, their responsibility to help their followers understand the world around them and take the best actions (will be covered in more detail later)
And as the world evolved, so has the VUCA vocabulary. New acronyms have been suggested such as
  • BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, incomprehensible) from Jamais Caisco
New words, same meaning. Sure, there are some subtle changes in the wordings, but it’s roughly the same concept each with their own marketing layer over it. Probably sells better that way.
Either way, we get the message. The world is changing.
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Reflection: What are VUCA changes that you see in your environment?


Reflection: And are there things you can do


But is the world really that VUCA?

Sometimes it is worth asking the opposite question. Is the world really changing that fast? Or is the world more calm, simple, stable, and certain than we sometimes make it out to be. Do we actually live in a VUCA world? Is the change we are facing really increasingly disruptive?
There are several scholars and business thinkers who challenge the idea . Instead they argue that most VUCA publications are exaggerating the state of the world or misdirecting leaders' attention.
In the book Factfulness by Hans Rosling he argues that our perception of unpredictability is often flawed and critiques the idea that the world is becoming more chaotic and unpredictable.
Roger Martin argued that the world has always had elements of volatility and uncertainty. Framing the world nowadays as overwhelmingly VUCA as opposed to Stable, certain, Simple, Clear (SCSC) is just fantasy, it has always been VUCA. He also argues that putting too much emphasis on the VUCA narrative can lead to a defeatist mindset. Instead, he advocates for integrative thinking and strategic clarity.
“I would rather have companies think that their environment is VUCA rather than stable, known, simple and clear (SKSC) because the latter is delusional. What I don’t at all like is the popular if not dominant view in business that the environment is more VUCA now than at any point in the past.”
Roger Martin
And in his book Anti-fragility Nassim Taleb critiques the way people perceive uncertainty and volatility. Instead of framing the world as VUCA, he focuses on how systems, organizations, and individuals can benefit from, and even thrive in, uncertainty rather than merely surviving it.
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Reflection: What do you believe? Do you think we are living in a time of unprecedented change or is it all a bit exaggerated?


Making sense of it all

Despite which side you are on, you can probably agree that there is a certain level of change we are seeing and we are looking towards our leaders to help us navigate this. And there are certainly some areas where we can observe higher paces of change than others. In the last 20 years we have seen a lot of advancement in research/knowledge driven domains such as:
  • Healthcare (medicine, biology, )
  • technology (cloud, computing, semiconductors, internet, cryptocurrency, machine learning, artificial intelligence etc.)
That is also called industry 4.0, the fourth revolution in their series. The four industrial revolutions represent major shifts in manufacturing and technology:
  • Industry 1.0: Mechanization through water and steam power (late 18th century)
  • Industry 2.0: Mass production and assembly lines powered by electricity (late 19th century)
  • Industry 3.0: Automation through electronics and computers (1970s)
  • Industry 4.0: Smart technology, IoT, AI, and cyber-physical systems (present)
Each of these revolutions fundamentally changed how we work, produce goods, and organize our economies.
The speed of development, innovation, and adoption can sets the pace at which we feel we are living in a VUCA world. But also in other areas we see movements of change such as political stability, climate, prosperity, social cohesion, etc. Each of these form trends, either slow or fast paced, that need to be considered.
One of the leader responsibilities is to deal with this change. Throughout this course you will learn more about various tools, theories and concepts (e.g. Cynefin) that will help you with sensemaking and dealing with such changes.

Global trends related leadership

The trends we have described so far are things in the wider context that leaders need to adjust for. But there are also some trends that we see directly impacts the way we lead. There are some profound elements in the changes that I think impact how we see the domain of Leadership. Let's go over four core trends that affect the state of leadership in the 21st century.
  • Trend 1: The (un)democratization of power
  • Trend 2: The digitization of influence
  • Trend 3: The need for human connection
  • Trend 4: The world in turmoil
 

1️⃣ Trend 1: The democratization of power

In the last era, the way our societies governed power has evolved radically. On a global scale there have been experiments with the distribution of power. Most apparent are the various governmental structures we have seen in the last 100 years. Countries traded the old monarchies of absolute power for 'newer' structures with more distributed power balances. We experimented from fascism and elitism (power to a few) to communism and socialism (power to the people), from bureaucracy (power to institutions and processes) to capitalism (power to the market) and corporatism (power to organizations). And even though most countries call themselves democracies now, this certainly isn't the end of the ideological struggle to balance power. Moreover, these power experiments didn't just happen in our political institutions. We have seen power reforms everywhere. In our organizations. In our schools. In our media. In our parenting. We have empowered employees, students, citizens, our children to do things on their own.
This is also notable in the rise of new leadership theories such as servant leadership and democratic leadership and the focus on followership. Followers are becoming more educated, better informed, and more demanding.
The impact of these changes is best visible in our organizations. The companies structure decision making is changing. Employees are getting more freedom to make decisions. New structures like agile, enable teams to make critical decisions within their range of responsibility. As a result cultures of meritocracy rise in popularity. In this case, the best result or idea, and not the most powerful person determines the course of action.
We no longer have 'one' big leader/boss. Not even several managers distributed over the business units. But we are transforming to organizations with many empowered employees, each of them with the potential to lead.
 
Yet, these changes also cause new challenges. As we delegate more power to individuals, they need to learn how to deal with these responsibilities. Instead of being led towards a goal, they now need to learn to direct themselves. We now expect people to be able to steer themselves, even if they never had a job before.
Edit in 2025
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Update in 2025:

Trend 2: the digitization of influence

Additionally within the last 40 years the digital landscape has dramatically changed the way we influence people. The traditional ways we used to influence those around us is not as effective anymore. With the rise of the internet, information is shared instantaneously, has become publicly available to anyone, and is competing with a vast ocean of content. Across the globe we see the rise of 'influencers', who seem to connect with their audiences digitally on a daily basis. The time where we could rely solely on formal power to impose our will has passed.
At it's very core, leadership is all about influence. Inspiring followers now requires digital interaction. But these digital interactions bring new challenges. The content of your communications are published online, your words and actions are observed globally, and your ethics are tested over time. People all over the world can factcheck and even openly challenge your ideas. Everything you say and do will be judged. Judged by our feelings and emotions, but also judged by our sense of fairness. The way leaders understand and interact with their audience, has changed. You need new ways to learn about your followers emotions and convictions, their hopes and beliefs, their need for leadership. This digital era requires a new way to influence. A new way to lead.
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Update in 2025:

Trend 3: The need for human connection

The effects of trend 1 and trend 2 is that we operate in a completely new way. In a digital age, new generations benefit from the democratized power and the abundantly available multitude of information by digital media.
And because of this ever increasing digitization of our world including our social interactions we also become more distanced from each other, some physical interactions have been replaced with digital interactions, which is impacting our mental states. Not surprisingly, an increasing number of people feel depressed, disconnected or lonely.
Leaders have an important role to play in bringing people together and give meaning to the social interactions that take place.
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Update in 2025:
 

Trend 4: The world in turmoil.

 
But digitalization has also changed us in another way. As Simon Sinek argues, it taught us to seek instant gratification over hard work. To always be looking for achievement and acknowledgement. Yet their entry level jobs don't offer this. And so they embark on a quest of their own. Looking for meaning, for purpose, trying to make an impact.
How to lead this new generation? Traditionally, we have considered leading yourself outside the domain of leadership. But with the growing focus on followership and many young professionals struggling to guide their ambitions, we think it is time to rethink that point of view.
The way forward
So how should you lead in this new era? Many leaders struggle with this. Not so strange, since our theoretical perception of leadership changes much slower than the dynamics of our environment in which we operate. But this process won't stop, the world will keep on changing and new demanding challenges will arise constantly. Is your organization ready for the future? Are you ready for the future?
Do you have the right people on board to tackle the next era of challenges? Are you investing in the future leadership of your organization? Are you helping your employees to manage themselves? Many organizations aren’t. In fact, even though big budgets are spent on leadership programs, they often serve more to attract or reward employees rather than actually develop leadership potential.
Many of today’s 'high quality' leadership programs are focused on developing the current c-suite or 'the top 100' (in companies with 200.000+ employees. Investing only in those who have the 'potential'. Those who are the 'chosen ones' or the high performers are rewarded with a fun mini vacation in a top school in London or Geneva. Often, intended more as a pat on the back than a complimentary addition as integral part of their individual learning requirements. And as a result, even though millions are spent on internal leadership development for 'high potentials', most leaders are still recruited externally. But in a world of increasingly democratized power, shouldn't we invest in the leadership qualities of a much broader audience, if not all our employees?
Currently we only invest in leadership development for those who hold a leadership position. But leadership is not a position. Leadership is a journey of self-reflection, about sharing stories, leadership is about dreaming and being an example to others (regardless, -no wrong word, despite of your responsibilities).
Leadership is about being an example to others despite your responsibilities, and not because of them.
A new approach to leadership development is needed. An approach that helps to prepare our people to tackle the problems of the future. And we are here to shape it. It is time to invest in the next generation of leaders. Not the 'chosen' few, but the empowered many. In this Course/Book we are rethinking leadership development. Together with industry experts, HR managers, and young leaders we are shaping a curriculum aimed at learning the skills needed to develop yourself into a leader. Making leadership development accessible for all. Inspiration is drawn from a wider field than the traditional leadership categories, moving beyond the clichés (often reduced to sports and strategy). Fields as philosophy, storytelling, and psychology need to teach us about discovering one’s self, meaning of life, art of persuasion, and understanding others.
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Update in 2025:
I want to challenge you to learn 'how to lead yourself', 'how to become a follower' and hopefully to make the world a better place.
The desperate urge for a new approach to leadership